UHERO’s latest forecast says Hawaii is drifting toward a recession, and in true island fashion, they’ve found the nearest boogie board to blame: Trump. That’s right—tariffs and federal layoffs are supposedly why Hawaii’s economy is shrinking. Not the fact that we’re the most expensive state in the nation, import 90% of our goods, and run on a single economic engine called “tourism and vibes.” No, it must be the tariffs.

Let’s unpack that sandbag.

According to UHERO, tourism is already down 3–6%, and the state could lose $1.6 billion in visitor spending by next year (UHERO, 2025). That’s a major hit—but blaming tariffs is like blaming sunscreen for a sunburn when you fell asleep on Waikiki for six hours. Hawaii’s been overdue for economic diversification since pogs were popular.

Here’s the real tea: our economy is built like a Jenga tower made of rental cars, poke bowls, and hope. When the pandemic hit, we didn’t just struggle—we flatlined. UHERO’s own 2020 report warned that Hawaii’s “economic monoculture” made us uniquely vulnerable to external shocks (UHERO, 2020). That wasn’t Trump’s doing. That was decades of state policy bottlenecking local industry while worshiping at the altar of the tourism gods.

And yes, there have been federal job cuts—but let’s not act like this is some targeted political vendetta. Biden’s 2024 budget tightened discretionary spending across agencies, and furloughs are happening across the country (Congressional Budget Office, 2024). Crying “Trump did it” is like yelling “fire” after you already tossed the match.

Graduates entering the market are struggling, and that’s tragic. But if you’re graduating with a BA in “Postmodern Interpretive Dance and Emotional Expression,” don’t expect LinkedIn to explode. According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, fields like communications and sociology are oversaturated, with job growth under 5% annually and entry-level pay lagging well below cost-of-living levels in Hawaii (BLS, 2025).

Want real reform? Start with slashing the red tape strangling small businesses. The Tax Foundation ranks Hawaii 41st for business tax climate (Tax Foundation, 2024), and local entrepreneurs often face months-long delays just to get a permit approved. Meanwhile, California’s already got working vertical farms and green startups. We’re still arguing over styrofoam.

And let’s not forget our favorite scapegoat: shipping. Tariffs might sting, sure, but Hawaii’s import reliance makes us vulnerable with or without them. We’ve been ignoring food security and local manufacturing for years, despite countless calls to action. The state’s 2050 Sustainability Plan? About as binding as a New Year’s resolution.

So no, Trump didn’t wreck the canoe. He might have leaned a little too hard on one side, but let’s be honest—our outrigger had duct tape on the hull, termites in the crossbeams, and a state legislature arguing over paddle colors. Time to stop blaming D.C. and start fixing our own damn boat.

Dennis Leskovec is a U.S. Air Force veteran, psychology grad student, and founder of Hawaii News Hoku. He believes in data, hard work, and poking holes in bureaucratic life rafts.



References:

UHERO. (2025). Hawaii Economic Forecast: Spring 2025. University of Hawaii Economic Research Organization. Retrieved from https://uhero.hawaii.edu

UHERO. (2020). Hawaii’s Economic Future: Structural Challenges Post-COVID. Retrieved from https://uhero.hawaii.edu

Congressional Budget Office. (2024). Analysis of the President’s Budget for Fiscal Year 2025. Retrieved from https://www.cbo.gov

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. (2025). Occupational Outlook Handbook. Retrieved from https://www.bls.gov/ooh

Tax Foundation. (2024). 2024 State Business Tax Climate Index. Retrieved from https://taxfoundation.org/publications/state-business-tax-climate-index/